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Com 450: Senior
Seminar -- Politics and Media
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Dr. Janet McMullen
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Campaign Strategy -- Course Notes
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Last Updated: 09/30/2002
Reading Assignment: ALL of Powell and
Coward, Political Campaign Communication: Inside and Out (2003)
Additional suggested Reading: Carville and Belagia, Shut Up....
Q: To what degree can a campaign
consultant affect an election? (They can help, but can't decide it; can't
do anything about advantages that come with already holding an office or the
nature of the candidate him/herself. p. 8)
Q: How is political communication
different than ordinary persuasive communication, such as marketing
products?
From Denton and Woodward (1985)
- the goals are short-term
- clear objectives are decided and all
communication is designed to meet them
- mass media are more important in political
communication than other marketing ventures
- the focus and message are designed around
things that just happened or will shortly happen
- niche audiences are essential to success
Powell and Coward point out that campaigns have a
"one-day-sale" mentality. Success or failure is determined by
what happens on that one day, and while polls taken before hand may offer
insight, they don't matter. The only thing that matters is that Tuesday in
November (or whenever).
Candidates are different that Charmin or Coca
Cola in that they want to create commercials that keep us thinking about those
products over a long period of time. Repetition now, when we're young, may
keep us remembering the product slogan for decades of purchasing
decisions. (I still remember several jingles from when I was a
pre-teen....Some for products I would never buys..."Winston tastes good,
like a [clap, clap] cigarette should." "You wonder where the
yellow went, when you brush your teeth with Pepsodent..." There are
more, but I won't bore you...)
There is also a significant difference in what
political communication is asking of those to whom it is directed:
- Deciding who should be President ideally
should take more cortical energy than whether to buy Cheerios or the
Wal-Mart facsimile.
- You may find yourself at Target or the grocery
store on a fairly regular basis, so purchasing a particular product is not a
strain on your normal routine....Not so with voting. You may have to
get up early, find out where to go, stand in line when you get there or even
take off work in order to vote. Voting requires extra effort for which
the prospective target may not be motivated.
- At Food World, you find the product, put in it
your cart and pay for it; voting requires meeting specific requirements --
registration before hand and then filling out the ballot properly (remember
dangling chads?) when you get there. It's much harder.
The communication is also judged differently
because it's held to higher standards
- One click on the internet and a
"shopper" can check the background of a candidate, so political
communications have to be far more specific and documented or they open
themselves and their candidate up for problems.
- Image development is much harder, because
"looking great" may not be enough
- Requires enormous amount of money to produce
and distribute the communication
Socialization
Q: How are citizens of the U.S.
socialized concerning their political responsibilities? Who are the primary
socializing agents?
(Family, Media, Political Parties, Peers,
Schools)
Be sure you can identify and explain the
following political communication models:
The Simple Transmission Model:
Parents pass on their political ideas and loyalties to their children. That
transfer of ideas may be partly due to shared experiences in the family.
Family nature may influence how that works to
some degree: In 1970, R.S. Sigel demonstrated how the nature of
communication and attitudes of the family toward political ideas could influence
the socialization process. He identified four types of families based on
those characteristics or socialization styles.
- Laissez-Faire Families: These are
families that aren't particularly interested in politics and have no strong
political loyalties. As a result, they don't find out much about
what's going on there, because they're not interested. These families
usually don't emphasize education and their children don't earn outstanding
grades as a rule.
- Protective Families: These are
families in which "getting along" is a high value and
confrontation is discouraged. They are the folks who want "mind their
own business" and not get involved, and so they don't participate in
political parties or activities. They watch a lot of TV, including
violent content.
- Pluralistic Families: In these
families ideas and learning are emphasized. The parents want children
to understand the world around them, so education is emphasized and their is
discussion in the home about political and world events. Little violent
television is watched.
- Consensual Families: In these
families both sides of issues are discussed and it's okay to have strong
opinions, however maintaining peace is important as well. Children in
these families may watch a lot of violent television, and they don't usually
have a lot of information about political issues. While they may
study, they don't usually get really high grades in school.
I'm not going to hold you responsible for all of
the details about these groups, but it is a good idea to understand that
inherent characteristics in family attitudes and communication can significantly
affect political socialization.
As you look at these family socialization styles,
it's not surprising that young people as a rule have little interest in or
knowledge about political issues. In my generation nearly 50 percent of us
went to the poles when we were in college, in 1998, that number was
20%. According to a University of Maryland study, only
42 % of those 18-24 who were eligible to vote actually did vote in the 2000
election. (Christian Science Monitory, 7/1/02) Total voter turnout
for 2000 in federal elections was 51.2%.
Q: Your authors discuss the social cost of
voting? What is that? (How hard is it to vote?
Register, etc.? Peer acceptance? Cool factor? Life at risk?)
Q: What does it mean to "work
your strengths" ?
(Go after those who you have a reasonable
expectation of getting based on demographics and psychographics.
- most efficient use of money
- most efficient placement of ads and special
appearances
This is why we'll see President Bush in
Alabama to campaign for a Republican gubernatorial candidate, but not during the
presidential election year. Alabama is a sewn-up state. )
Those traditional alliances can change over time,
as they have here in Alabama.
- Changes tend to run in 20 year cycles -- back
and forth from liberal to conservative
- A charismatic leader can cause a significant
change. Ronald Reagan moved many traditional democrats to vote
republican for the very first time
- A significant/watershed event such a Watergate
or a war or the impeachment of a president. These things are so out of
the ordinary that they can radically change traditional voting patterns.
- Sometimes the shifts are temporary:
- perceptions of contemporary conditions
(education, economy, etc.) change as times change
- lifestyles can change and do change.
Bill Clinton's behavior would have certainly caused is ousting from
office 30 years ago.
- new information changes the
"mix" and thus the way voters process political information
Q: So why is it important to understand how political
information is socialized?
[discuss]
Campaign
Strategies
A
clear strategy is necessary for success in elections races, particularly in
those above the immediate local level. Campaign consultants are extremely
valuable, but they can't over come the inherent characteristics of their
candidate.
Campaign consulting began
in the 1930s, but one of the most interesting early efforts resulted in the
first candidacy of Richard Nixon. The Committee of 100, a group of
California republicans, wanted to defeat a Democratic incumbent but had not
candidate. They ran an ad for a candidate in the newspaper and Nixon
responded and ultimately won the election after an attack-campaign directed by a
political consultant.
Before any successful
campaign can be undertaken, the people planning it have to know what they're
dealing with. There are several organized methods of doing such an
evaluation:
EVALUATING
THE CAMPAIGN SITUATION TO DEVELOP STRATEGY
1.
One of the most popular approaches is the SWOT approach (see p. 36
in text) which strives to determine:
- strengths: what are the things
that will make people want to vote for the candidate; record, funding,
personality, appearance, etc.
- weaknesses: could be some of the
same categories listed above; inability to attract the right kinds of voters
or supporters, having upset key groups in the past
- Opportunities: these are temporal
things from outside the campaign that can change rapidly....state of the
economy, international incidents, mood of the public, trends in government
or media agendas.. These things can benefit candidate.
- Threats: External factors which
could negatively influence the campaign. They may be some of things
listed above in the opportunities list...What is an opportunity for one
candidate may be a threat to another.
2. "Who'll Say
What..." (see Figure 3.1 in text) In this approach, a grid
is developed in which the campaign planners list all of the positive and
negative things which could be said about either candidate.
| |
What will be said about Candidate A |
What will be said about Candidate B |
| What Candidate A will say |
|
|
| What Candidate B will say |
|
|
This analysis will allow a campaign planner to
anticipate the give and take dialogue of the campaign and to prepare responses
for what the opposing candidate will do. It also allows them to realize
what the opposing candidate can NOT say for one reason or another, and to
develop strategies to use that for their own benefit.
3.
"CAT" Analysis stands for "Contingencies, assumptions and
tactics" of a campaign. An examination of what each of those are is
usefule:
SOME SUCCESSFUL
STRATEGIES:
- In Man-Out Man Strategy:
This one is discussed in detail in your text on p. 43
- When Used: Against incumbent; only
two candidates
- Assumptions:
- People vote frequently against
incumbents rather than for the challenger.
- The challenger is a reasonable choice
to take the job
- Must inoculate the challenger from the
negative stuff the incumbent is bound to say in counter-attack
- Three-stages of Development
- attack incumbent, but with
third party so challenger is accused of "mud slinging"
- build positive image
- go after uncommitted voters
- go after hard-to reach voters
- inoculation--tell voters what
the incumbent is likely to say and answer the charge
preemptively (Takes the wind out of sails...)
- Assumed Incumbency Strategy:
- When Used:
- candidate is running for against
non-incumbent
- incumbent was well-liked
- some link can be made between the
incumbent and candidate -- "heir" association made
- Focuses on issues, not the other candidate
- Those who voted for incumbent are likely
to vote for candidate
- Three Stages of Development which dictate
media use:
- legitimacy:
- press coverage
- goal: establish expectations for
candidate
- as "natural"
frontrunner
- as qualified
- logical choice
- Identification:
- name recognition
- face recognition
- keeping name/face in mind of
public (priming theory)
- bill boards, posters, signs,
posters, etc.
- reinforcement:
- broadcast
- emphasize competence and empathy
- can do the job
- understands the people and the
problem
- Easy Decision Strategy
- Ticket Splitting
- Developed by DeVries and Tarrance*
in 1972
- Crucial swing vote is ticket splitters
- younger
- more educated
- more suburban/white collar
- media buys based on their media use
- Goal: provide lots of information to voter
- Identify ticket splitters through polling
and previous voting behavior
- Some questions about validity of this
strategy
- Least Objectionable Candidate
- Developed by Joseph Napoleon*
- Just like the least objectionable
programming theory, this model says people vote for the least
objectionable politician
- Deciders: moderates, neither very liberal
nor very conservative
- Message: keep it general, not too extreme
- "Only Alternative
Strategy"
- Positional strategy to differentiate
candidate from opposition
- Negative campaign: focus on negatives
about opposition, but little positive about candidate
- "He's a bad guy. Vote for me
because I'm not him."
- Role Definition Strategy:
- Ideal candidate
- Used when voters see candidate as viable
candidate
- Try to show candidate is ONLY real choice
- Triangulation
- Use third candidate or issue to siphon off
votes from opposition
- Raise issue which will cause voters to go
there...
Candidate Images:
We don't have to spend a lot of time talking
about how important image is to a candidate. We've discussed that many times in
class already. The authors have an excellent chapter on the
issue.
What are candidate images? There are
several approaches:
- Orator: Assumes the better one speaks, the
more trustworthy and authoritative one is.
- Five-factor analysis: character, competence,
sociability, composure, extroversion (Note that Bill Clinton did very
well in the last three in particular)
- Television Personality: political, personal,
stylistic role on television -- Telegenic?
- Five-Dimensions: leadership ability, political
philosophy, speaking ability, intelligence, honesty
- Three Components: leadership strength,
personal judgment, understanding of voters -- a fourth is sometimes added,
"hard worker"
Other academics have categorized four ideal types
of candidates for voters:
- decision-maker
- empathetic leader
- moral role model
- Political party loyalist (this one is
the only one which is inconsistent with the image approaches above.)
How do you develop an
image?
Mike McClister (D: Johnson, Carter and others)
"Image is truth with its best foot foward."
Cognition:
These are the facts we learn about candidates
which help us figure out who they are. It doesn't matter whether the
information is accurate. If we learn it, and apply it, it will impact our
image of the candidate.
Evaluation:
Does the vote like/dislike or find the
candidate's position similar or dissimilar to the voters own ideas.
Behavior:
The idea is to get the person to vote -- to care
enough about the candidate to DO something about that. That something
could be to volunteer, work in the campaign, talk to friends, etc.
Obviously image affects the outcomes of
campaigns. People have a hard time voting for people they
dislike. In Alabama, a lot of people agreed with many of Fob James'
positions, but they disliked him, his image and the way that image affected the
image of Alabama.
Think about the images of some recent candidates:
- Bill Clinton
- Hillary Clinton
- Dan Quale
- John McCain
- Jesse Jackson
- George W. Bush
What types of images to voters remember more?
(negative ones)
How do campaigns affect image?
- winning improves it; losing doesn't help it
- party affiliation can add prestige or
problem-- or a candidate with a poor image can "share" that with
his political party
- Bob Dole had a much better image after the
election -- he relaxed! So his perceptions of what campaigning was and is
affected his behavior and subsequently his image.
* I will not hold you responsible
for remembering which consultants developed which strategy. That information is
there for informational purposes only.
Resources:
Copyright,
2002
Dr. Janet McMullen
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